Santos seat key to Republican victory
The stakes are high for House Republicans in maintaining their majority in 2024, particularly in New York. The recent expulsion of Rep. George Santos (R-N. Y.) highlights the significance of this state. With a seat lost and several other Republican candidates facing toss-up races, the battle for control of the House will be determined in New York. Democratic strategist Jon Reinish emphasizes that New York is at the absolute epicenter of this fight for majority control.
The House GOP is counting on key Republicans like Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, Anthony D’Esposito, and Brandon Williams to secure victories. These candidates are facing tough competition but their success is crucial for the party. According to Republican strategist Tom Doherty, being a Republican in New York can be challenging, except in districts like Elise Stefanik’s 21st Congressional District which leans more towards the red side.
In the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats emerged victorious by capitalizing on the public’s backlash against the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and former President Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud. Although they narrowly lost control of the House, they managed to maintain a majority in the Senate. Republicans now hold a slight majority in the House without Santos, with New York being one of the unexpected states where Republicans made gains by picking up four seats.
The GOP’s success in winning control of the House was greatly influenced by key pickups in certain districts. Surprisingly, these districts, which currently have Republican representatives, actually voted for President Biden in the 2020 election. This presents a unique challenge for Republicans running in 2024 as they will need voters to split their tickets, a phenomenon that is not commonly observed. Notably, New York and California, typically considered blue states on the national level, have more Biden-district Republicans than any other state.
Republicans are aware of the challenges faced by incumbents in maintaining their seats. However, they remain optimistic about their chances due to the commendable actions of politicians like Molinaro and Lawler. Emphasizing their moderate approach, Doherty highlights Lawler’s positive remarks towards a former rival, demonstrating their willingness to work collaboratively.
Lawler’s recent tweet demonstrates his respect for Liz Gereghty’s bold decision to run for office. Despite their differences, Lawler appreciates her courage and admires her willingness to participate in the political arena. Doherty views this as a testament to Lawler’s character, indicating why independent voters find him trustworthy and how he secured his previous election victory.
Several House Republicans, including Lawler, have been vocal in denouncing Santos and demanding his resignation or expulsion from Congress. Democrats are likely to use Santos to criticize Republicans in key districts during the 2024 elections. However, it’s important to note that Democrats themselves have dealt with controversies surrounding Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N. J.).
Santos’ credibility was questioned when it came to light that he had fabricated details about his personal and professional life. He is currently facing numerous felony charges related to campaign finance and other violations. On the other hand, Menendez has been accused of accepting bribes in exchange for favors, but he maintains his innocence and has resisted calls for his resignation. Both cases highlight the need for accountability and transparency in our political system.
According to Garvey, the responsibility lies with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) to call a special election within 10 days of Santos’ absence, to be held 70 to 80 days later. With the district’s history of voting for Biden and a narrow GOP majority, this could be an excellent chance for Democrats to gain ground.
Former Rep. John Faso (R-N. Y.) cautions against premature celebration of a Democratic victory, highlighting the strong contest expected from both parties in the election. Faso notes that Republicans have performed well in the district over the past four years. He believes that issues like inflation and crime will carry more weight with New York voters, rather than the fate of a former congressman like Santos.
The upcoming special election is considered highly competitive, with the Cook Political Report rating it as a “toss-up.” D’Esposito and Lawler are facing significant challenges compared to other New York GOP members. However, the dynamics of their constituency could shift depending on a ruling from the state Court of Appeals regarding potential redistricting in 2024.
The Democratic-led state Legislature’s decision on district boundaries was overturned by the appeals court, leading to Democrats losing several seats. Now, Democrats are advocating for the bipartisan Independent Redistricting Commission to create a new map, which could potentially benefit them. The court recently heard arguments on the case and is expected to make a ruling in the near future. This effort demonstrates Democrats’ determination to pursue a fair and favorable outcome for their party.
Even if the appeals court rules in favor of the Democrats to redraw district lines, it may not stop Republican incumbents due to New York’s constitutional ban on partisan gerrymandering. However, even small changes to the lines could potentially have a significant impact, as stated by Democratic strategist Reinish.
Political experts predict that the redrawing of electoral district boundaries could impact the future of elections. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis may face jeopardy if the lines change, specifically in her Staten Island and Brooklyn district. The outcome will heavily depend on whether the boundaries remain unchanged or are redrawn to favor Democrats. If incumbents retain an advantage, Republicans might face challenges in holding their seats beyond Nassau and Suffolk counties.
According to Reinish, New York Republicans may face challenges in the upcoming political landscape. With split-ticket voting becoming less common, incumbents may have difficulty benefiting from it. While they can tout their stance on certain issues like Santos, other matters will hold more weight in voters’ minds.
Despite voting with House GOP leadership and controversial members, such as Reps. Jim Jordan and Marjorie Taylor Greene, most of the time, it is important to note that this is merely a public relations tactic. While their votes against George Santos may seem commendable, it primarily serves political purposes rather than truly impacting the lives of their constituents on a daily basis.
